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Bashar almost never attaches numbers to the future. In one 2015 session he did: 98% for one event, 90% for two more, 78%, 87%, 57%, and one flat 100%. All of them pointed at a window that closed years ago, which means every single one can now be checked. Here is the scorecard, sourced to the tape.
This is an unofficial, fan-made explainer, written from Bashar’s public YouTube talks. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Bashar Communications or Darryl Anka, and nothing here is channeled. We describe the idea as accurately as we can — but for the real thing, go to the source.
Bashar's standing position is that he rarely predicts, because there is no fixed future to predict. The September 2015 session is the exception that makes an audit possible: he named specific events, attached explicit percentages, and bounded them to a window — "thirteen months and counting" toward the fall of 2016. That window closed nine years ago. Everything below is therefore checkable against the public record, which is the rarest property any claim in this field can have.
The tape even dates itself. He closes by noting that "your space agency is about to make an announcement about your planet of Mars" on a night when "your own moon almost looks like Mars because of the eclipse." That is 27 September 2015 — the total lunar eclipse — and NASA's announcement of evidence for briny liquid water on Mars came the next morning.
Before a single number, the caveat: "Predictions are always sensings of the energy at the time the prediction is made… whether you want to maintain its momentum and manifest it, or whether you want to actually get active and do something about altering the course." Keep that sentence in view. It is the frame that decides what the scorecard means — and we come back to it at the end.
The claim: within 2015–2017, focal point 2016, "the announcement of the discovery of some form of life on another planet other than your own" — 98%.
What happened: no such announcement. February 2017 brought TRAPPIST-1, seven Earth-sized planets around one star — a landmark for habitability, not a discovery of life. NASA's Mars water announcement, which he flagged himself the day it happened, was water, not life. Not fulfilled.
The claim: bubbles bursting in China (90%) and Greece (90%), and if both, "a 78% probability that your country will experience a major collapse somewhere before or around the fall of 2016 in its economic structure. It could be as much as 50%" — a number he correctly calls devastating.
Worth stating plainly on the first two: China's stock market crash ran from June 2015 and Greece's capital controls, referendum and third bailout all landed between June and August 2015 — that is, both were already underway when the session was recorded. The forward-looking part is the American one, and there the record is unambiguous: no major collapse before or around the fall of 2016. Not fulfilled.
The claim: "the complete removal of your present taxation system" within a couple of years, at 78–87%.
What happened: the December 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed rates and brackets. The taxation system was not removed, and no serious mechanism to remove it existed. This is the cleanest miss on the list, because the wording leaves no room — complete removal is not a thing that can happen quietly. Not fulfilled.
The claim, and the only certainty he offered: "There will be another sighting of major proportions during this time frame… the probability of this is 100%," a ship of the Yahyel, shown deliberately so humanity could decide what to make of it. He carefully separated the event (100%) from our reaction ("undecided").
What happened: no mass public sighting of that kind is on the record for 2015–2017. Not fulfilled — and this one carries the most weight, because within his own framework a 100% reading is not a probability that our choices were expected to move.
"The first stage, just the very first stage of some facet of disclosure will come from an unexpected source, very unexpected… toward the end of your 2017, maybe into your 2018." On 16 December 2017 the New York Times revealed the Pentagon's Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, published the Navy encounter videos, and put a former Defense Department official on the record. An American defense bureaucracy is a genuinely unexpected source, and the timing is nearly exact. Fulfilled, by any fair reading.
And the Middle East: things beginning in the fall of 2016 that "come to fruition in about four of your years… at least appearances of peace." Four years later, in September 2020, the Abraham Accords were signed, after the territorial defeat of ISIS between 2017 and 2019. Vague enough that a determined skeptic can dismiss it — but the shape and the clock both match. Arguably fulfilled.
The 57% natural disaster sits in between: too loosely specified ("whether or not this is a collapse of an ecosystem is not clear") to score either way. Unscoreable.
Four numbered, checkable claims: all four failed, including the one at 100%. One numbered claim: unscoreable. Two unnumbered, qualitative claims: both look right, one of them impressively so.
That is precisely the pattern a skeptic predicts — falsifiable claims fail, unfalsifiable ones "hit" — and honesty requires saying so first. But the inverse is also on the tape and deserves the same airtime: the qualitative calls were not soft. "Disclosure from a very unexpected source, late 2017" is a narrow thing to say in September 2015, and it happened on schedule. Nothing here resolves cleanly in either direction, which is exactly why it is worth publishing the whole scorecard instead of the half that suits a position.
His current claim — an opening of contact around 2027 — is the same kind of statement from the same source, so this is the only real track record available to weigh it. Two things follow. For the skeptic: the numbers have been tested once, and they failed. For the believer: the escape clause is not a retrofit, it was stated in this session before the numbers, and it is the same definition of prediction he gave in 1987 — the framework never claimed the numbers were fixed.
Both readings are honest. What isn't honest is quoting the 2027 date without the 2016 scorecard attached.
Our archive covers public YouTube sessions. Claims that circulate about earlier material — a 1990 book said to predict mass contact "by the early 2000s," or paid recordings — are outside it, and we do not score what we cannot hear. If you have a public video of a prediction we missed, send it and we will add it to the file.
“Predictions are always sensings of the energy at the time the prediction is made… whether you want to maintain its momentum and manifest it, or whether you want to actually get active and do something about altering the course.”
“The probability of this announcement of the discovery of some form of life on another planet other than your own is at present 98%.”
“If these happen, based on the 90% probability for China, 90% probability for Greece, then there is at this point a 78% probability that your country will experience a major collapse somewhere before or around the fall of 2016 in its economic structure.”
“…the complete removal of your present taxation system. The idea therein is that this has a lot of momentum behind it and right now has again between a 78 to 87% chance or probability of occurring within the next couple of your years.”
“There is at present about a 57% probability, in and around that time, of what you would call a large-scale natural disaster that will allow for global mobilization to assist.”
“There will be another sighting of major proportions during this time frame… the probability of this is 100%. In terms of the sighting itself — the probability of your response to it is up to you, for that is undecided.”
“What you would call the first stage, just the very first stage of some facet of disclosure will come from an unexpected source, very unexpected. But toward the end of your 2017, maybe into your 2018… these things will be finally talked about and revealed in such a way as to begin to take them seriously.”
“Through the idea of 2017, 2018, 2019 to 2020, there will be things resolved in that area that will begin in 2016 in the fall that can come to fruition in about four of your years that may allow finally certain beginnings of stabilization and at least appearances of peace to happen in the Middle East.”
“Allow yourself to be reminded that there are thirteen months and counting down… For as your space agency is about to make an announcement about your planet of Mars, notice the timing and the synchronicity that it is happening on a day when your own moon almost looks like Mars because of the eclipse.”
The definition of prediction that governs this whole page — and why a moved date is never a miss inside the system — is examined in does Bashar contradict himself. The mechanics behind "you can change the timeline" are parallel realities and state of being.
The numbered ones, mostly no. Of the six probabilities he attached to the 2015–2017 window, the 98% (announcement of life elsewhere), the 78% (major US economic collapse by fall 2016), the 78–87% (complete removal of the taxation system) and the 100% (a major sighting of one of their ships) have no matching real-world event. The 57% natural disaster is too loosely defined to score. The two claims he gave without a number — a first stage of disclosure from a very unexpected source in late 2017, and a four-year Middle East arc — both have strikingly good real-world matches.
A major public sighting of a ship belonging to the Yahyel, the hybrid civilization Bashar says will make first contact. He put it at 100% for the 2015–2017 window, distinguishing the sighting itself (certain) from humanity's response to it (undecided). No verifiable event of that kind occurred.
The tape dates itself: 'thirteen months and counting' toward the focal point of fall 2016, plus a same-day lunar eclipse and an imminent NASA announcement about Mars. That places it on 27 September 2015 — the night of the total lunar eclipse; NASA announced evidence of briny liquid water on Mars the next morning.
Yes, and he says it in this very session, before giving any number: a prediction is a sensing of energy at the moment it is made, and hearing it lets you change course. That clause is genuine and consistent across decades — and it is also what makes the scorecard unresolvable in his favor or against him. A 100% sensing that produced nothing is either humanity changing the timeline or a miss, and no evidence can separate the two.
It is the same kind of claim from the same source, so the 2016 scorecard is the closest thing to a track record we have. Worth noting on both sides: the numbered, checkable predictions failed, while the vaguer qualitative ones landed — which is the pattern a skeptic expects and the one believers should weigh honestly before 2027.
No. meetbashar.com is an unofficial, fan-made archive built only from public YouTube transcripts — not affiliated with or endorsed by Bashar Communications or Darryl Anka. Every quote links to the exact second of the public video.
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